Quarantiming

When will this end? Is this a dip or depression?

Mar 16, 2020

There are very few journalists who understand traditional markets & cryptocurrency markets. Larry Cermak at The Block is one of the rare exceptions. He published this graph today that shook me to my core:

The Dotcom Bubble was caused by people investing too much in the Internet.

The Mortgage Bubble was caused by people investing too much in real estate.

The Virus Crisis is completely different.

Can you change your mind? Are you wrong?

A lot of people want to know: when will this end? When will the stock market bounce back? When will things go back to normal?

People are struggling to accept that world has changed. Forever.

$RIC 🐚 @ricburton

Everyone has a reality incubation period It takes time to accept that you were wrong Watching my friends try & process this new reality is absolutely staggering Some of them were prepping in January Others still think the stock market will bounce back 🦠

The Dark Side of Viral Growth

The Crypto Twitter community were way ahead of the curve on these problems. We could all see the coming storm because we follow folks who are trained in viral spotting trends. Intuition for exponents is extremely hard. You need to spend a lot of time around things that grow exponentially to get a feel for when something goes viral.

$RIC 🐚 @ricburton

Viral growth is not fun when it is an actual virus 🦠w

Who should I listen to?

I am paying close attention to the best investors I know in the space. For traditional companies, that is Sequoia Capital. They called this before everyone:

Sequoia @sequoia

Founders & business leaders: We sent this note to Sequoia founders/CEOs to provide guidance on how to ensure the health of their business while dealing with the consequences of the coronavirus. We hope it's helpful to you during these turbulent times.

Coronavirus: The Black Swan of 2020Here is a note that we sent to Sequoia founders and CEOs today to provide guidance on how to ensure the health of their business while…seq.vc

In crypto, I really respect Avichal Garg at Electric Capital because he really understands how people & protocols work. I feel that the virus is a pin that will pop the decades-long bubble created by the Federal Reserve 👇