Quarantiming
When will this end? Is this a dip or depression?
There are very few journalists who understand traditional markets & cryptocurrency markets. Larry Cermak at The Block is one of the rare exceptions. He published this graph today that shook me to my core:
The Dotcom Bubble was caused by people investing too much in the Internet.
The Mortgage Bubble was caused by people investing too much in real estate.
The Virus Crisis is completely different.
Can you change your mind? Are you wrong?
A lot of people want to know: when will this end? When will the stock market bounce back? When will things go back to normal?
People are struggling to accept that world has changed. Forever.
The Dark Side of Viral Growth
The Crypto Twitter community were way ahead of the curve on these problems. We could all see the coming storm because we follow folks who are trained in viral spotting trends. Intuition for exponents is extremely hard. You need to spend a lot of time around things that grow exponentially to get a feel for when something goes viral.
Who should I listen to?
I am paying close attention to the best investors I know in the space. For traditional companies, that is Sequoia Capital. They called this before everyone:
In crypto, I really respect Avichal Garg at Electric Capital because he really understands how people & protocols work. I feel that the virus is a pin that will pop the decades-long bubble created by the Federal Reserve 👇
#StayTheFuckHome
So what can we do? Personally, I have been exiting all risky positions & joining the #Quaranteam. I am staying home & trying to help people remotely.
This is a really great campaign to encourage people to self-quarantine before the spread gets out of hand.
These are going to be difficult times. Prepare yourself & your family 💌
You can follow me on Twitter: twitter.com/ricburton